Will Global Trade and Development Growth Improve in 2014?

Will Global Trade and Development Growth Improve in 2014?

Following the slump in global trade and development that occurred from 2009 onward, business analysts have been hoping that 2014 would signal a return to previous growth rates.

In April 2014, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) predicted that global trade and development will grow by 4.7% during 2014. This relatively modest growth rate is predicted to be followed by slightly increased growth of 5.3% in 2015. While these rates are a little over twice the average of 2.2% recorded over the last two years, the 2014 forecast still remains below the 5.3% average for the last 20 years.

The International Monetary Fund was more cautious than the WTO, predicting 3.7% growth in global trade and development in their initial forecasts in April 2014. This figure was revised to 3.4% in July 2014. However, the IMF continues to predict 4% growth for 2015.

Sluggish Growth in Global Trade and Development for Early 2014

According to the United Nations’ monthly briefing on the World Economic Situation and Prospects issued in July 2014, growth rates in early 2014 have been more sluggish than expected.

According to the July briefing, world trade growth is running at roughly the same rate as the growth of world gross product (WGP). Prior to the recent economic slump, world trade growth stood at almost twice that of WGP. It had been hoped that demand from developed countries would fuel global trade and development growth over 2014. However, in the early part of the year, the slow recovery in exports and imports appears to be affecting both developed and developing countries.

Improved Prospects for the Year End?

However, all is not lost for businesses that depend on global trade and development. The trend between 2011 and 2013 is for trade to bounce back in the later part of the year, giving a positive end to the year’s trading figures. It is certainly possible that the same trend will take place in 2014, offering a glimmer of hope for those involved in international trade and development. There is a likelihood that international trade and development will pick up as the year progresses.

What Does This Mean for UK Businesses?

The prospect of increased growth in international trade and development during 2014 gives UK businesses the opportunity to expand into new global markets. There are prospects for expansion into both developed and developing countries where products produced in the UK are in high demand. However, the conservative estimates for growth mean that there may be little margin for error when expanding into new markets. To reduce the risk, it is wise to access the expertise of specialists in international trade and development.

The consultants at Kinetic Cubed have spent years getting to know the global marketplace. With a permanent presence in Europe and Asia, Kinetic Cubed can help you to explore the potential for securing new market share for your products or services. Local knowledge is invaluable when establishing a new market for exports. Kinetic Cubed can ensure that their local expertise maximises your chances of success.

Leave a reply